Wednesday, 16 May 2012

France Economy


GDP

Actual: 0.0% • Previous: 0.2%Next Release: N/A
French real GDP was unchanged on a quarter-ago basis in the three months to March, following a revised 0.1% increase in the previous stanza. The outcome was better than Moody’s Analytic and the Bloomberg market consensus had expected. Domestic demand contributed to GDP, while net foreign trade was a drag. On a year-ago basis, GDP growth slowed to 0.3% from a revised 1.2% in the fourth quarter. The economy will go into a mild recession in coming quarters as fiscal tightening in France and its key European trading partners, combined with uncertainty about the sovereign debt crisis weigh, on activity.

Employment Situation

Actual: 9.4% • Previous: 9.3%Next Release: N/A
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for mainland France rose to 9.4%, the highest in nearly two years, in the fourth quarter from 9.3% in the previous stanza. Weak public and private sector hiring will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate in the coming quarters.





Industrial Production

Actual: -0.9% • Previous: 0.3%Next Release: N/A
French industrial production fell 0.9% m/m in March, following a revised 0.9% rise in the previous month. On a year-ago basis, production contracted 0.9%, less than a 1.4% decline in February. Production will remain under pressure in the coming months because of fiscal tightening at home and in key European trading partners and uncertainty about the economic program of France’s new president weighing on the demand for local goods.

Trade balance

Actual: -€ 5.7 bil • Previous: -€ 6.4 bilNext Release: N/A
France’s seasonally adjusted foreign trade deficit narrowed to €5.7 billion in March from a shortfall of €6.4 billion in the previous month. The trade balance will remain under pressure in the coming months because Moody’s Analytics believes that the euro zone has gone into a mild recession, which will weigh on demand for French exports.

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